Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 215.101726 262.686623 322.101017 403.177616 513.264865 6.611329e+02 8.813101e+02
2025-05-11 162.096240 216.682013 293.983592 416.293587 614.998236 9.458946e+02 1.592636e+03
2025-05-18 131.296752 186.253970 271.001495 420.102378 698.128407 1.252440e+03 2.652605e+03
2025-05-25 109.573685 162.147424 248.392886 412.827721 755.151565 1.551799e+03 4.125771e+03
2025-06-01 93.485231 142.860581 227.827206 400.562849 794.771508 1.847196e+03 6.184289e+03
2025-06-08 81.299192 127.490749 210.133962 387.403978 825.501411 2.152057e+03 9.159858e+03
2025-06-15 77.652717 126.013378 217.181037 427.777944 1011.494646 3.157650e+03 2.083300e+04
2025-06-22 70.997238 117.886799 209.475977 432.284155 1103.675830 3.978186e+03 3.996621e+04
2025-06-29 66.336802 112.706730 206.593906 447.568099 1241.932021 5.295081e+03 9.736100e+04
2025-07-06 60.838848 105.085527 197.039828 442.611794 1309.800669 6.419046e+03 2.234297e+05
2025-07-13 59.360571 105.196016 204.433560 486.914838 1605.996422 1.017238e+04 2.164436e+06
2025-07-20 57.504549 104.231882 209.156883 525.772811 1926.390388 1.613498e+04 5.184373e+09
2025-07-27 54.955463 101.646491 210.012936 555.231495 2255.476993 2.577266e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 52.129249 98.093181 207.846423 574.549047 2567.768332 4.070572e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 49.050769 93.575713 202.349132 580.248944 2814.280000 6.137082e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 45.701074 88.045486 193.206988 569.131419 2936.721117 8.395154e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 42.463587 82.430928 182.963789 550.478434 2985.953936 1.085798e+05 NaN
2025-08-31 39.534159 77.242858 173.137922 530.555357 3007.986605 1.380390e+05 NaN
2025-09-07 39.343426 78.500850 181.703769 591.964314 3915.616897 4.944636e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 37.578066 75.756751 178.181208 598.869628 4302.526979 1.140115e+06 NaN
2025-09-21 36.364132 74.238861 178.085916 622.365727 4979.833761 5.229646e+06 NaN
2025-09-28 34.518230 70.959920 172.088142 614.733757 5237.229468 1.901021e+07 NaN
2025-10-05 34.411299 72.069074 180.036826 683.374516 6989.844867 NaN NaN